The global system we’re part of is going into chaos. News reports from all over the world inform that something is wrong in the world’s societies. I believe that many of the current developments in our individual societies and nations are part of a larger system of causality and impact. The global system is at risk. We need to ensure that it balances.
I think this is feasible I will explain my thoughts on how this rebalancing could be accomplished. First, let’s consider the severity of current imbalances in the global system. There are four main reasons the system has spun so over the top as it is.
- The incredible complexity of global systems
In a world with 7.7 billion inhabitants, it’s no surprise that the worldwide system is far more complicated than at any moment in history. When 1945 was the year that the foundations of our current system were created in 1945, the population of the world was just a quarter of the population it is currently. In the same way, when it comes to the world economy, following World War II exports comprised only 5percent of the world’s GDP. Nowadays, the percentage is about five times more even though global GDP has risen by multiple times too.
- The rapid pace of change is the result of Fourth Industrial Revolution. Fourth Industrial Revolution
The world isn’t only more complex, but it’s also changing quicker. This Fourth Industrial Revolution has already created more innovative technologies than its predecessors. This includes artificial intelligence as well as the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, and gene editing among many others. Additionally this Fourth Industrial Revolution is powered by ever-faster chips and an exponential increase in their computational power. Most, if not all companies that are located in Silicon Valley, Shenzhen and other tech hubs are slipping behind in their ability to keep up with the changes.
- An inefficient management system for global governance.
Faced with this complex rapidly changing world, the system to govern the world created in the 20th century is fast becoming outdated. It is a fact that the United Nations was created at an era in which China was still a People’s Republic of China – rapidly becoming the world’s top economy and a significant power in the world – did not yet existed. In the end, what was once known as the Washington Consensus on how to create economic growth has no relevance in the age of 3D printing and automation. Today there isn’t any international organization with an accurate estimation of the amount of the digital economy.
- In many countries, there have been popular uprisings are fueled by a widespread public desire to regain the power of the society
In the wake of the fact that even sovereign governments are caught unaware by the speed of technological advancement and are not able to keep up all over the world, people are protesting. Some are directing their anger at supranational institutions like that of European Union, others direct the anger at foreigners as well as foreign nations, and yet people are revolting against the other members of their society. However, many are also protesting against the economic or political system, either for failing to deliver widely held gains or not addressing the issue of climate changes. The majority of them have one common feeling that they would like to regain control over the system that seems beyond their reach.
This is the general global situation which we live. However, our global system is also a complicated set of interdependent subsystems. And each one of them is in a state of disarray as well. Together, they’re creating a flurry of dangers that could affect our lives in the future.
Five subsystems comprise the global system the ecological system, our economy; technological system and our social system and our political system.
This is probably the most significant among the five. Without a well-balanced global ecological system without which none of the other could function effectively. Global warming is a concern, and it is the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued an urgent warning in October of 2018 that there are only 12 years to stop the onset of a global climate catastrophe. If we don’t shift our approach now the global temperature are likely to rise by two degrees Celsius and the resulting effects will be difficult to reverse.
However we’ve come be aware that global warming is just one aspect of Anthropocene. Our oceans, for instance suffer in other ways as well. In Davos in 2016 the world was warned there could have more fish than plastic in our ocean by 2050 when we continue to make the same amount of single-use plastic as we do.
This year scientists like primatologist Jane Goodall, documentary filmmaker Sir David Attenborough and World Wildlife Fund Executive Director Marco Lambertini warned of other irreparable harms we are creating for our planet. This has led to the idea that we require to create a New Deal for Nature as in all.
The International Monetary Fund in January has once more lowered its economic growth forecast for the world at 3.5 percent in 2019, and just a little more in 2020. IMF Director Christine Lagarde warned that “the world economy is growing more slowly” in the same way that “risks are rising”. This slowdown occurs in a period when corporations’ debts in the United States and elsewhere are more than double what was the case in 2007. Government debt for local governments in China has been rising significantly, too. Europe isn’t fully recovered from the previous crisis. It’s clear that we’ll have limited options during the next recession.
Trade-related issues are creating other economic worries. Trade has been instrumental for decades to create the largest wealth growth that the world has ever witnessed. However, since the beginning of this year, trade has been declining as a proportion of GDP globally. It is likely to continue to grow as major nations are looking to trade wars as a policy tool. This is a risky bet. In a globalized economy, it’s nearly certain that any restrictions on trade can have negative, unintended results.
The technology subsystem
Technology that is connected plays an increasingly important role than it has ever played in our global ecosystem but it also poses risk that is greater than they have ever been. In our Global Risks Report 2019 revealed that, in addition to extreme weather and climate change incidents one of the biggest concerns is massive cyberattacks as well as the failure of crucial IT network infrastructures and.
This cyber threat is coming at a time when technology advancements are impacting us in a way that is ever more profound and in ways that we haven’t yet developed the skills to deal. We’ve only glimpsed the surface of the iceberg when concerns artificial intelligence, for instance. It will enable the automation of many other tasks. AI will also be able predict more than it does now due to the increased amount of data collection. The next major power battle to be the best has already begun and has its sights set on AI.
To ensure that to make use of the data for AI to produce positive outcomes it is essential to ensure that the data utilized is both varied and correctly collected. On these fronts, massive issues are causing alarm about privacy and bias. Countries that have large and varied datasets, or who create cross-border flow of data protocols to make these, will be placed to make the most from machine-learning. States with smaller populations as well as those with huge populations but lacking the infrastructure needed to collect data using the Internet of Things risk falling further behind in the race.
A social system
In part due to the technological advances that has occurred during technology of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which gives enormous power to the hands of the largest tech companies, we again find ourselves in the era of a “winner-takes-all” society and economy. This powerhouse of corporations is starkly different from the new situation of “precariat” arising all over the globe.
The suffering of “yellow vests” in France as well as people who have been called the “forgotten people” in America’s Midwest and Appalachia as well as of the people who are nationalists in Brazil as well as India, the Philippines and India could appear distinct on first sight. The fact that all of them have become prominent in just only a few years is not a accidental. Technology has left a lot of people behind and led to a rise in inequality, while also opening an opportunity to see people who are its users.
A global system of political power
In a world that had two nations competing for dominance in the world In 1990, only one power remained one: The United States. This unipolar world, which had America as US as the dominant in terms of power with market capitalism being the dominant economic model, has come at an end. The new multipolar and multiconceptual one that was created in Davos 2019. It is really fragile as the growth of new powers contributes to a hostile environment to the previous power.
This leads me to the most important issue to be resolved. How do we restore the system of control in a world that is in disarray on these different fronts?
I believe that we can bring about an era of growth and relative peace if can establish an agreed upon framework for global system changes. If implemented properly this framework could lead the world from inequity to equilibrium and also from nationalism, upheaval and protectionism to a brand new world order – Globalization 4.0. What should the standards for global system changes appear like? I offer the following seven suggestions.
First, a cooperative method of global governance that respects the multipolarity as well as diversity. A new global system must be founded on the common concerns. It should be based on the coordinated achievement of common goals, and not in cooperation to create the same goal. It is the Paris Climate Agreement is a illustration of this. It was a consensus to “what” we want to do, but it allowed sovereign nations to choose “how” best to reach their national goals.
The second reason is that this new international system must be more participatory. Countries have achieved the greatest gains by focusing on all of their stakeholders: business, civil society and government as well as individual people and groups. This is true for the country I am from: Germany but will be the case for all countries in the future.
Thirdly the system we have is more environmentally sustainable. Already in the beginning of the 1970s, the Club of Rome warned us that in the future, there were limitations to growth. They were wrong regarding the immediate Malthusian aspect of these limitations however, they were right regarding the environmental aspect of our limitations to growth. As per one estimation over the past three years, our world’s ecosystem has lost nearly one quarter of its value that it could contribute. It is not possible to let it decline further.
Fourth Our system must become more inclusive. Individuals may be capable of accumulating more money by pursuing blindly their own goals. However, in the interests of society, we have to ensure that nobody is excluded. Many societies this could be a new emphasis on redistributive policies as well as taxation.
Fifth the system we have is supposed to have a more balanced gender. For too long we’ve been in a society which has given all sorts of privileges that are based on gender. The 21st century has to be the year that this shifts and women are involved in politics and in business in the same degree or in the same way as male counterparts. In our Annual Meeting, we continue to work towards increasing women’s involvement year after year, just as we did in the past year.
6th needs to be more human-centered. That is not to say that I believe humans must wage war against robots, but that we’re more powerful when we collaborate with robots. As we develop the global order, we need to ensure that the importance of humans and their requirements, and the needs of all species, are paramount over machines.
Finally, our new global system needs to be more ethically-based. It needs to eliminate distortions, corruption as well as other excesses. Elites should become more credible role models. In other words, we require to re-moralize globalization.
If we can apply these standards uniformly over the various global subsystems that I previously mentioned, I am convinced we can define Globalization 4.0 as an era of globalization that leads to prosperity and stability greater in scope and spread than any other time in history. This includes the stability and prosperity that resulted from the huge wave of global growth during the 90s and 2000s.
To rebalance every subsystem, different dialogues are required. In the case of socio-economic systems the new rules have to be negotiated on fiscal policy. With rising inequality and “winner-takes-all”-driven industries, it will almost certainly be necessary to increase taxes on wealth and reduce those on labour, as well as to take anti-trust action to ensure that competition and choice are respected.
In the technology subsystem, we’ll have to reach an agreement on new regulations in the field of AI or gene manipulation to ensure that they are backed by fundamental ethical rules. In the social subsystem, we’ll need to shift from a materialistic obsession to more of a humane orientation, especially in aging societies.
What do the changes in the system I’ve explained have implications for the world at large? They demonstrate, in the most fundamental way that no one actor can bring order back to the world system. If ever there was unipolar then that is no longer the case. If there ever was a system of government that had absolute sovereignty that is no more. We are able to turn our backs on the increasingly digital and ecologically connected world that we are living in however, we can’t avoid its consequences. There are two ways to deal with this reality: one is negative, and the other positive.
This negative attitude could cause leaders in the nation to concentrate solely on national concerns in the belief that ensuring social cohesion for the country is the only priority. This, however, could further undermine this global structure.
The positive approach to the current global reality suggests that the global system can be strengthened and restored. It is not likely to be accomplished top-down like previously instead, it is by strengthening the components of the system starting from the bottom. It is likely to require many efforts to reform these components and eliminate the imbalances and distortions between them.
For proof that this method is feasible Let me present some of the most important successes of Davos, Switzerland for the annual World Economic Forum Meeting 2019. Davos:
Many stakeholders have committed to achieving an New Deal for Nature by 2020. This includes the World Wildlife Fund, the International Chamber of Commerce, and a host of other stakeholders endorse this plan.
Similar accomplishment was also announced with regard trading by World Trade Organization. A number of countries announced that they will begin creating regulations for trade in digital form.
The Annual Meeting of 2019 was the achievement of a record amount of concrete results due to the bottom-up, multistakeholder method.
However, progress must be made after Davos in addition to the international system as well. Therefore, let me attempt to answer one final vital question. What does this theory of systems of change mean to the government and leaders of nations? In a weak global system it is essential to build resilience by building a robust national subsystem that can take on any shocks. Three pillars are essential for building strong and resilient national systems.
The first reason is that governments have to adopt the long-term view. The good news is that this is feasible. The abundance and accessibility of information and AI can enable a shift from backward-looking analysis to predictive ones and from reactive analysis in favor of proactive analysis. It is essential that government invest in technology that can facilitate this, and are able to collect and process the available data in ethical methods.
A good example of this forward-looking approach is the development in early tsunami warnings systems. Up until recently, Stanford researchers said that these systems were based on models that were built to predict the relationship between tsunamis and earthquakes. Today, new techniques permit real-time estimations.
Furthermore, the latest geological sensors can more accurately forecast everything from the likelihood of earthquakes that could occur within a particular region, to the possibility of the area becoming flooded. These types of technology can aid governments in deciding where to construct critical infrastructure, or even where they can allow homes to be constructed.
The second principle for creating resilient national systems can be done by the bundling of sources. Too often, the government agencies operate in silos, either within or across countries. Through bundling resources, and linking intelligent systems, government officials are able to reduce the complexity of their systems and improve the resilience and agility in their systems.
The last pillar of governments is constant exploring, adapting, and growing. We have pioneered this model of governance in one of our World Economic Forum Centres to prepare for our clients in the Fourth Industrial Revolution across the globe.
The strategy we recommend to governments is to evaluate technological policies by rapid prototypes and tests in a restricted space. Technology is constantly changing and government policies should too.
The current world is afflicted by an imbalance in the global system. If we don’t take action quickly, it’s likely to result in more issues in the future and our capacity to restore balance in the system will decrease. However, it doesn’t have to be that in this way.
Armed with the right ideas and a thorough appreciation of the intricate nature of each subsystem we can guide the world towards a new period of shared and global prosperity. Let’s ensure that the globalization 4.0 is the most successful yet.